Electoral Map Predictions

With 133 days to go until the General Election in November, I thought it might be fun to try to take a stab at how I think the electoral vote will break on November 8. The LA Times has this neat little gadget where you can create your own map, and supposedly save and embed them to post on blogs. Unfortunately, the embed feature doesn't seem to be working, so for now I'll just link to my maps, and I'll update with the maps later, if they get it working. Anyway here are my three different scenarios for November.

Worst Case Scenario Prediction: Obama 264 McCain 261 Too-Close: VA (13)

This scenario is a repeat of 2004's electoral college, with the exception of a Democratic pickup in only two states: IA and NM. Media darlings OH and FL are, in this model, red, and it all comes down to Virginia.

Iowa is basically a lock for Obama, though its results in the fall will largely depend on how the candidates deal with the issue of flood response. In spite of all the silly race-baiting "Latino-voters-are-afraid-of-black-people" pseudo-reporting the MSM did back during the primary there, the electorate in New Mexico is coalescing around the Democratic candidate. If Gov. Richardson manages to convince his constituents that Obama is the man for the job (and if the Obama people publicly offer him a cabinet seat), NM should be a lock too.

In Virginia, the hugely popular Mark Warner is on the ballot for Senate for the Dems and since Obama's campaign is specifically targeting Virginia for pickup, I feel confident, as does the Obama campaign, that VA can be turned blue.

However, if Obama makes no other pickups over 2004 elsewhere in the country, VA becomes a must-win. I can't conceive of any way right now in which a 2004 blue state would turn red in 2008, so the only model in which I see a McCain win would be if Obama fails to "change the map" with VA and we get a basic repeat of 2004. Predicting that the race comes down to a late night nail-biter in Virginia assumes some pretty serious shifting of the polling tides which currently show Obama starting to open a wide gap over McCain. Perhaps the Obama campaign gets completely battered from now to November with stupid gaffes, or he blows it in the debates, or the MSM continues to ignore McCain's constant double-speak. It's not likely, but it's not impossible either.

Of note about this model: if Obama wins VA, he wins the presidency without FL and OH. So maybe we can finally move on.

Actual Reality-Based Prediction: Obama 337 McCain 201

This one is the one that I actually think will pan out in November. In it, I have Obama not only pick up VA, but also turn OH blue, as well as a big bunch of states across the latitudinal middle of the country: NV, CO, MO, NC.

CO currently has Obama consistently leading and pulling ahead in the polls, and having the Convention in Denver this year will probably help Obama secure that state's 9 EV's. NV has similar demographics to other mountain-west pickup prospects for Obama, and he out-raised McCain there by 4:1, but the state has recently had some of the lowest voter turnout of any state in the country. That can be bad for Obama, or it can be good: if his netroots machine can bring new voters into the game the way he did in the primaries, he could not only take the 5 EV's, but also help down-ballot Dem candidates across the state.

In MO, Rasmussen has Obama pulling off a huge swing in the last three months, with the state going from 38-53 McCain in March to a statistical tie, 43-42 Obama in June. It'll be a fight in Missouri, but I think he can turn it. The May 6 primary upset in NC for Obama showed his power to beat the polls in that state, and the polls for the general currently have him in behind McCain but within the MOE. If Obama can get the African American population to turn out for him in NC, he can turn this long-time red state blue.

IN is close right now, but I don't see it going for Obama just now. It's a close one, but for safety's sake, I'm keeping it red. As for OH, everyone has something to say about Ohio, but I'll keep mine brief. The statistical gods at FiveThirtyEight say that Obama has a 78% chance of winning the state and its 20 EV's. They're really good at what they do.

Happy Magical Fantasy Projection: Obama 396 McCain 142

This is the map that has Republicans losing sleep at night. In this one, Obama picks up not just CO, IA, MO, NC, NM, NV, and VA from my "real" prediction, but also manages to pull in AK, FL, GA, IN and ND, taking a grand total of 12 2004 Bush states, and beating McCain in the electoral college by over 2:1. Like my worst-case scenario, this one is not especially likely, but certainly not impossible -- FiveThirtyEight currently puts the chance of an Obama 375+ EV landslide at over 40%.

FL, right now, is a toss-up, and so is IN. But if the McCain campaign can't keep competitive. AK has an incredibly tight Senate race right now, and if this is the year for incumbents to be afraid, Alaskan Democrats may show up in droves to oust unpopular Republican Ted Stevens in favor of Mark Begich and, in so doing, turn the state blue. There hasn't been much polling lately in ND, but they have two Dems in the Senate and may about to buck their long-time Republican presidential voting pattern.

GA is where it gets interesting. Current polls show McCain leading by low-double digits, with the exception of one. This may be the deep south, but it is a state that went for Clinton in 1992. GA has a huge African-American population, and you know the Obama campaign is going to have a major voter-registration push in the state in order to secure their votes. But that's not what makes the state interesting. Here's what does: Bob Barr.

Now, I'm personally no fan of Bob Barr as a politician. During his time as a Republican congressman from GA-7, he led the impeachment push against Clinton and authored the Defense of Marriage Act (both of which I think chafe with his libertarian bona fides). But following the election of Bush, he became a vocal critic of the president's abuse of power, and left the Republican party. And he did later renounce the whole DoMA thing. Not that it makes it okay. Anyway, now he's the Libertarian Party's candidate for president. He's well-enough liked in his home state, and many true conservatives and Ron Paul types are looking to the Libertarian Party as a tonic for the false conservatism of Bush Republicanism.

Earlier I said one poll in the state didn't have McCain with a big lead. That poll came from Insider Advantage, who put Barr's name on the poll. In that poll, McCain led Obama by only 1%. Keep an eye on GA and its 15 EV's. It could be the surprise of the year.

And now, I think I'm gonna go outside. This is incredibly nerdy and I need some fresh air.